By Talker Draft
“It’s about time” — a majority of Americans believe that Joe Biden waited too long to drop out of the 2024 presidential election.
A little more than a quarter (26%) believe that Biden should have dropped out of the race sooner and another 34% believe that he never should have sought a second term in the first place.
That’s according to a survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, with 400 Democrats, 400 Republicans and 200 Libertarians, Independents or Green Party members.
Results found that Democrats lead this charge, with 30% believing that Biden should have withdrawn sooner, along with 22% of Republicans and 25% of the other parties.
Almost one-third (30%) of Republicans take things a step further and believe that Biden should have already stepped down from his post as President of the United States, as well as 19% of other party members and only 8% of Democrats.
Fans of HBO’s award-winning political satire series “Veep” were quick to notice how similar reality ended up paralleling a plotline in the show. Specifically, the president withdrew from the race and gave his female Vice President counterpart a chance to take his place. Results found that nearly a quarter of viewers (24%) were not surprised by the prediction.
Another 38% even agree that TV shows such as “The Simpsons” are better at predicting the future than any analysts, reporters or forecasters.
Conducted by Talker Research, the survey also revealed that 81-year-old Biden withdrawing now brings attention to Donald Trump’s age and cognizance, who is only three years younger.
At 78 years old, 55% of Americans believe Trump’s age and mental consciousness are an issue and only 28% see “no issue at all.”
According to 26% of Democrats, Libertarians, Independents and Green Party members polled, the most important factor for selecting a new Democratic presidential candidate is that they’re younger than both Biden and Trump.
This came in third only to selecting someone who can beat Trump (52%) and someone with new ideas (32%).
The good news for those voters is that both Democrats (65%) and third party members (42%) believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely candidate to come out on top of Trump in the election.
Still, when looking at all Americans polled, 38% believe that Harris is most likely to be elected, while 39% simply believe that no one can beat Trump, with 72% of Republicans agreeing.
Survey methodology:
Talker Research surveyed 1,000 Americans (400 Democrats, 400 Republicans and 200 Independent/Libertarian/Green Party members; the survey was commissioned by Talker News and administered and conducted online by Talker Research between July 24 and July 26, 2024.
We are sourcing from a non-probability frame and the two main sources we use are:
- Traditional online access panels — where respondents opt-in to take part in online market research for an incentive
- Programmatic — where respondents are online and are given the option to take part in a survey to receive a virtual incentive usually related to the online activity they are engaging in
Those who did not fit the specified sample were terminated from the survey. As the survey is fielded, dynamic online sampling is used, adjusting targeting to achieve the quotas specified as part of the sampling plan.
Regardless of which sources a respondent came from, they were directed to an Online Survey, where the survey was conducted in English; a link to the questionnaire can be shared upon request. Respondents were awarded points for completing the survey. These points have a small cash-equivalent monetary value.
Cells are only reported on for analysis if they have a minimum of 80 respondents, and statistical significance is calculated at the 95% level. Data is not weighted, but quotas and other parameters are put in place to reach the desired sample.
Interviews are excluded from the final analysis if they failed quality-checking measures. This includes:
- Speeders: Respondents who complete the survey in a time that is quicker than one-third of the median length of interview are disqualified as speeders
- Open ends: All verbatim responses (full open-ended questions as well as other please specify options) are checked for inappropriate or irrelevant text
- Bots: Captcha is enabled on surveys, which allows the research team to identify and disqualify bots
- Duplicates: Survey software has “deduping” based on digital fingerprinting, which ensures nobody is allowed to take the survey more than once
It is worth noting that this survey was only available to individuals with internet access, and the results may not be generalizable to those without internet access.